Monty Hall problem

Monty Hall problem

The Monty Hall problem is a probability puzzle, loosely based on the American television game show Let’s Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall.
The problem was originally posed in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American Statistician in 1975 (Selvin 1975a), (Selvin 1975b).
It became famous as a question from a reader’s letter quoted in Marilyn vos Savant’s “Ask Marilyn” column in Parade magazine in 1990 (vos Savant 1990a):

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?”

Vos Savant’s response was that the contestant should switch to the other door. (vos Savant 1990a)

The argument relies on assumptions, explicit in extended solution descriptions given by Selvin (1975a) and by vos Savant (1991a), that the host always opens a different door from the door chosen by the player and always reveals a goat by this action—because he knows where the car is hidden.
Leonard Mlodinow stated: “The Monty Hall problem is hard to grasp, because unless you think about it carefully, the role of the host goes unappreciated.” (Mlodinow 2008)

Logic is hard, mathematics harder, and probability even more challenging

Expected utility hypothesis

Humans find logic hard, mathematics harder, and probability even more challenging*.
Psychologists have discovered systematic violations of probability calculations and behavior by humans.
Consider, for example, the Monty Hall problem

*bibliographic references are not provided for this statement.