Reasoning Tools (2016)

The Psychology of Thinking – with Richard Nisbett
The Royal Institution, Jun 22, 2016
Reasoning Tools for the Information Age

6:22
Vocabulary has increased
The more words you have, the more concepts you have.
The more concepts you have, the smarter you hare.
related:
https://franzcalvo.wordpress.com/2015/06/10/why-our-iq-levels-are-higher-than-our-grandparents

7:34
Calculus is routinely taught in high school

7:40
there’s been no continuous change: Scandinavia
Scandinavia does a better job than the rest of us bringing up the bottom
industrial revolution skills

10:18
Examples of the new tools: Statistics and probability theory
– sample
– population
– sample bias
– randomness
– law of large numbers (23:30)
– normal distribution
– standard deviation
– statistical significance
– regression to the mean (29:27-> 32:32)
26:57 sophomore slump, second novels, albums
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophomore_slump
– base rate
– correlation (odds) 17:55
Perceived and actual correlations acrross two occasions and across 20 (21:44)
+ abilities (test scores)
+ traits (honesty)

10:47 Scientific methodology
– control group
– randomized control experiment
– confounded variable
multiple regression analysis (39:40)
control for social class: the prestige of their occupation
– self-selection
– independence of observations
– natural experiment
– artifact

11:01 Decision Theory
– cost/benefit analysis
– opportunity cost (48:59)
– sunk cost (52:31)
– loss aversion
26:57 sophomore slump, second novels, albums
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophomore_slump
– base rate
– correlation (odds) 17:55
Perceived and actual correlations acrross two occasions and across 20 (21:44)
+ abilities (test scores)
+ traits (honesty)

regression_to_the_mean2016

regression_analysis2

opportunity_cost

actions_as_costs

sunk_cost

One thought on “Reasoning Tools (2016)

  1. Pingback: Why our IQ levels are higher than our grandparents’ | franzcalvo

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